Could You Be One of the 6.3 Million UK Adults at Risk of Type 2 Diabetes?
Here's a sobering thought: right now, an estimated 6.3 million people in the UK are living with prediabetes, but many aren't even aware of it. Unlike a dramatic health crisis that announces itself with obvious symptoms, prediabetes creeps up silently, potentially developing into type 2 diabetes if left unchecked.
But here's the good news that should give us all hope: type 2 diabetes is largely preventable. In fact, research shows that completing the NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme reduces someone's chance of developing Type 2 diabetes by 37%. That's more than a third—achieved through nothing more complicated than lifestyle changes.
The Scale of the Challenge
The statistics paint a stark picture. We estimate that more than 5.8 million people in the UK are living with diabetes, which is an all-time high. Even more concerning, nearly 1.3 million people could be living with type 2 diabetes who are yet to be diagnosed.
The regional variations are striking too. Leicester was the upper tier local authority with the highest estimated type 2 diabetes prevalence (11.1%), while certain areas have rates nearly half that. This isn't just about postcodes—it's about understanding how our environments, lifestyles, and genetics interact to influence our health.
Understanding Your Risk: It's Not Just About Weight
While excess weight is a significant risk factor, the picture is more nuanced than many realise. Your risk of developing type 2 diabetes depends on a combination of factors:
Non-modifiable risk factors:
Family history (having a parent or sibling with diabetes)
Ethnicity (South Asian, Black African, and African-Caribbean populations have higher risk)
Age (risk increases after 40, though we're seeing more cases in younger people)
Previous gestational diabetes
Modifiable risk factors:
Being overweight or obese
Physical inactivity
Poor diet quality
Smoking
High blood pressure
Poor sleep patterns
The key message? Even if you have several non-modifiable risk factors, there's still plenty you can do to reduce your overall risk.
The Prediabetes Window: Your Opportunity for Change
Prediabetes means your blood sugar levels are higher than normal but not yet high enough for a diabetes diagnosis. Specifically, it's defined as having a HbA1c of 42–47 mmol/mol (6.0–6.4%) or a fasting plasma glucose of 5.5–6.9 mmol/l. Think of it as your body waving a yellow flag—not red yet, but definitely time to pay attention.
Without intervention, many people with prediabetes will develop type 2 diabetes within 5-10 years. But—and this is crucial—it's not inevitable. This is your window of opportunity.
The NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme: A Game-Changer
Since 2016, England has been rolling out the world's first nationwide diabetes prevention programme. The results have been impressive: A record 166,360 more adults in England began receiving support last year, with more than 900,000 adults at high risk having started the programme since its launch.
The programme lasts 9 months and provides personalised support on:
Healthier eating patterns
Increasing physical activity
Achieving sustainable weight loss
Managing stress and sleep
What makes it effective isn't just the information provided—it's the ongoing support and accountability. Participants typically achieve an average weight loss of 3.3kg, but more importantly, they develop sustainable habits that last beyond the programme.
Prevention Beyond Programmes: Your Daily Defence
Whether or not you're eligible for the NHS programme, there's plenty you can do starting today:
1. Move More (But Start Small) You don't need to run marathons. Research shows that even a brisk 30-minute walk five times a week can significantly reduce diabetes risk. The key is consistency, not intensity.
2. Rethink Your Plate The Mediterranean diet has shown particular promise in diabetes prevention. Focus on:
Plenty of vegetables and whole grains
Lean proteins (fish, poultry, legumes)
Healthy fats (olive oil, nuts, avocados)
Limited processed foods and sugary drinks
3. Prioritise Sleep Poor sleep disrupts hormones that regulate hunger and blood sugar. Aim for 7-9 hours of quality sleep—it's as important as diet and exercise.
4. Manage Stress Chronic stress raises cortisol levels, which can increase blood sugar. Whether it's meditation, yoga, or simply regular breaks, find what works for you.
5. Know Your Numbers If you're over 40 or have risk factors, ask your GP about checking your HbA1c. Early detection means early intervention.
The Bigger Picture: Why This Matters
Developing Type 2 diabetes can have a devastating impact on people and their families—it's a leading cause of preventable sight loss, contributes to kidney failure, limb amputation, heart attack, nerve damage, and stroke. The personal cost is immense, but so is the societal one, with diabetes costing the NHS £10 billion annually.
But remember those statistics from the beginning? The NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme has shown measurable success at the population level. Incidence rates of type 2 diabetes in areas with early access to the programme were significantly lower than would have been expected. This isn't just about individual success stories—it's about changing the trajectory of public health.
Taking Action: Your Next Steps
The first step is understanding your risk. Diabetes UK offers a free online 'Know Your Risk' tool that takes just two minutes to complete. It might be the most important two minutes you spend today.
If you're at increased risk:
Speak to your GP about testing and whether you're eligible for the Diabetes Prevention Programme
Start making small, sustainable lifestyle changes today
Monitor your progress—small improvements add up
Don't go it alone—involve family and friends in your healthier lifestyle
The rise in type 2 diabetes isn't inevitable. With the right support and changes, we can buck the trend. The question isn't whether prevention works—we know it does. The question is: will you take that first step today?
Concerned about your diabetes risk or need support with lifestyle changes? The Online GP offers comprehensive health assessments and personalised prevention plans. We can arrange testing, provide ongoing support, and help you navigate your path to better health. Book your consultation via WhatsApp—prevention starts with a conversation.
